In 2021, a military coup took place in Myanmar, in which the faction of the bourgeoisie supporting the military junta overthrew the faction of the bourgeoisie supporting the civil democracy government, and installed a military dictatorship. Since then, many civil rights have been suspended and ethnic and class contradictions within Myanmar have intensified. The result is the intensification of already existing conflicts and the creation of new ones, as well as the formation of new militant groups opposed to the junta, such as the armed wing of the bourgeois opposition – the People’s Defense Forces (PDF).
The end of the truce
In the first analysis of the civil war in Myanmar, we wrote that the Resistance, which represents all the militant groups fighting against the ruling junta, began a major offensive at the end of 2023, called the offensive 1027, after the date it was launched – 27 October 2023.
After the very successful the Resistance offensive and the change in the military strategy of the junta, the intensity of the fighting decreased and some of the largest groups that participated in that offensive, such as the Tang National Liberation Army (TNLA) and the National Democratic Federal Army (MNDAA) agreed to a ceasefire at the beginning of the year with the junta. The mediator in these negotiations was China, which directly influenced some groups to sign a truce with the junta, because after the Resistance cleaned up the organized crime centers on the border with China, the continuation of the skirmishes no longer suited them.
Currently, the largest and most influential groups within the Resistance are the aforementioned TNLA and MNDAA, as well as the Arakan Army (AA), which has not stopped fighting the junta. Those three groups are united in an alliance called the Alliance of Three Brotherhoods, through which they work together against the junta. All three groups operate in the northeast of the country, with AA also operating in the west of Myanmar.
Continuation of the offensive 1027
This is precisely why the re-engagement of these groups in the fight against the junta was of great importance. After the junta repeatedly violated the cease-fires with those groups and continued with the previous policy of terror against the population, TNLA and MNDAA were forced to go on the offensive again and thus launch the second part of the already mentioned offensive in 1027. As in the first part of the offensive, except for the Alliance the three fraternities included other groups such as various factions of the PDF.
The second part of this offensive went similarly to the first part. The resistance has made huge progress, taking large parts of the territory under the control of the junta, which has been constantly losing territory since it came to power in a coup and brought the conflict to a new level.
In the first few days alone, the TNLA captured as many as 26 military camps, inflicting heavy losses on the junta’s forces. Since then, numerous other military posts, weapons, villages and even cities, including Kjaukme and Nangćkio, Matupi, etc., fell into the hands of the Resistance. Also, a great success of the Resistance was the capture of Tandwe airport in Rakhine state, on the west coast of Myanmar.
During these conflicts, the junta’s biggest problem is supplying its soldiers in remote areas. The obstacle to this is not only the terrain itself, but also the fact that areas where ethnic minorities live are hostile to the junta and that these areas are well known to the Resistance groups, which is why ambushes of junta soldiers are very common.
This is why the junta is trying to discourage people from fighting against the government by targeting civilians with artillery and airstrikes and by generally instilling fear. However, as we see, such actions only serve to increase the people’s desire to fight. Such a motivation of the people to fight against the junta is one of the main reasons for so many successes of the Resistance, despite the fact that the Resistance is technically much inferior to the junta.